By David Arbit on Tuesday, December 18th, 2018

For the first time since April 2015, there were more homes listed for sale in the Twin Cities metro than the same month the year prior. After years of strong buyer activity and weak seller activity, the tides seem to finally be shifting. Seller activity has been accelerating since the middle of this year. Meanwhile, the last four months all showed year-over-year decreases in pending sales. Unit sales volumes are still healthy, though there is some downward pressure brought on by tight inventory and rising prices and rates. The market is decelerating, but not yet contracting. Prices continue to rise, and homes are selling in less time. But absorption rates and the ratio of sold to list price are starting to ease. That’s good news for buyers, even though sellers still have strong negotiating power.

The number of active listings for sale has increased compared to the prior year. Buyers haven’t seen inventory gains in over 3.5 years. Months supply also ticked up to 2.1 months, suggesting the market is still tight but it is rebalancing and normalizing. After increasing in October and November, rates have settled back down around September levels. The lack of supply is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price are commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and—for the most part—much better supplied. Inventory could double while sales remain stable and we’d still have less than 5 months of supply.

November 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)

Sellers listed 3,992 properties on the market, a 12.6 percent increase from last November

Buyers closed on 4,629 homes, a 0.9 percent decrease

Inventory levels for November rose 2.3 percent compared to 2017 to 10,181 units

Months Supply of Inventory was increased 10.5 percent to 2.1 months

The Median Sales Price rose 8.2 percent to $265,150, a record high for November

Cumulative Days on Market declined 7.1 percent to 52 days, on average (median of 31)

Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment:

Single family sales fell 1.1 percent; condo sales jumped 18.7 percent; townhome sales declined 3.3 percent

Traditional sales rose 1.3 percent; foreclosure sales sank 44.1 percent; short sales fell 42.9 percent

Previously-owned sales were down 3.2 percent; new construction sales ramped up by 28.7 percent
From The Skinny Blog.

By David Arbit on Friday, November 16th, 2018

As sentiments regarding the direction of housing markets have changed, it’s worth remembering two key facts. First, all housing is local—what’s happening in San Francisco, Seattle and Denver is not reflective of the Minneapolis-St. Paul market. Second, the housing market faces fewer risks than in the mid-2000s. After years of strong buyer activity and weak seller activity, the tides seem to finally be shifting. Five of the last six months showed increases in new listings; while five of the last six months also had decreases in pending sales. It’s worth noting there’s a significant difference between deceleration and contraction. The market is decelerating, but not yet contracting. Prices continue to rise, homes are selling in less time and sellers are yielding a higher share of their list price.

Excluding September 2018, October had the smallest decline in active listings since May 2015, and those long-awaited inventory gains could arrive as early as next year. Months supply was stable at 2.4 months, suggesting a tight market but also a flattening out pattern. Rising rates could impact some budget-conscious buyers. The lack of supply is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price are commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and—for the most part—much better supplied. Inventory could double while sales remain stable and we’d still have less than 5 months of supply.

OCTOBER 2018 BY THE NUMBERS (COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO)

– Sellers listed 6,011 properties on the market, a 9.2 percent increase
– Buyers closed on 5,235 homes, a 3.4 percent increase from last October
– Inventory levels for October fell 2.2 percent compared to 2017 to 11,719 units
– Months Supply of Inventory was flat at 2.4 months
– The Median Sales Price rose 8.6 percent to $265,000, a record high for September
– Cumulative Days on Market declined 7.7 percent to 48 days, on average (median of 28)
– Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment:

Single family sales rose 4.4 percent; condo sales jumped 10.6 percent; townhome sales were flat
Traditional sales rose 5.2 percent; foreclosure sales sank 41.2 percent; short sales rose 4.5 percent
Previously-owned sales were up 3.7 percent; new construction sales increased 12.3 percent
From The Skinny Blog.

After years of strong buyer activity and weak seller activity, the market tides seem to finally be shifting back toward balance. Strong demand and weak supply have created an environment that favors sellers. But if anything can be called a constant in the market—it’s change. Four of the last five months showed increases in new listings; while four of the last five months also had decreases in pending sales.

While the market hasn’t quite transformed, the dynamics are shifting and the market is transitioning. September saw the smallest decline in active listings since May 2015, and those long-awaited inventory gains could still happen this year. Months supply was down just 3.8 percent to 2.5 months. Today’s buyers still face plenty of competition over limited supply. However, a recent uptick in rates could further impact some budget-conscious buyers. Locking in at current levels would be advantageous in a rising rate environment.Sellers yielded an average of 98.4 percent of their original list price and 99.7 percent of their current list price, partly illustrating that the shortage still looms. The lack of supply is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and—for the most part—much better supplied. It’s noteworthy that inventory levels could double while sales remain stable and we’d still have less than 5 months of supply.

September 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)• Sellers listed 6,857 properties on the market, a 5.9 percent increase
• Buyers closed on 5,087 homes, a 5.8 percent decrease from last September
• Inventory levels for September fell 4.4 percent compared to 2017 to 12,570 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 3.8 percent to 2.5 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 6.1 percent to $262,000, a record high for September
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 16.0 percent to 42 days, on average (median of 24)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

• Single family sales fell 6.3 percent; condo sales declined 1.1 percent; townhome sales rose 0.4 percent
• Traditional sales fell 4.0 percent; foreclosure sales sank 41.1 percent; short sales dropped 25.0 percent
• Previously-owned sales were down 5.9 percent; new construction sales increased 11.5 percent

From The Skinny Blog.

More sellers are feeling optimistic about listing their homes just as humidity, cabin weekends and food-on-a-stick give way to rakes, school buses and sweater vests. Compared to last August, Twin Cities sellers listed 7.6 percent more homes on the market. That was the largest increase since late-2015. Although buyers signed 2.9 percent fewer contracts than last year, they did manage to close on slightly more deals. Three of the last four months had increases in new listings; three of the last four months had decreases in pending sales. This trend of rising seller activity and moderating buyer activity suggests we could be approaching those long-awaited inventory gains. Sure enough, the 7.8 percent decline was the smallest decrease in inventory in over three years. Months supply was down just 3.8 percent to 2.5 months.

That said, today’s buyers still face plenty of competition over limited supply. Sellers yielded an average of 99.2 percent of their original list price and 100.1 percent of their current list price, illustrating how drastically undersupplied markets tend to favor sellers. The shortage is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and—for the most part—much better supplied. The market remains relatively tight, but there are some early signs that things could be loosening up for buyers.

August 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)
• Sellers listed 7,814 properties on the market, a 7.6 percent increase
• Buyers closed on 6,629 homes, a 0.2 percent increase from last August
• Inventory levels for August fell 7.8 percent compared to 2017 to 12,243 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 3.8 percent to 2.5 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 6.3 percent to $268,000, a record high for August
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 16.7 percent to 40 days, on average (median of 21)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

o Single family sales fell 0.8 percent; condo sales rose 15.3 percent; townhome sales increased 1.1 percent
o Traditional sales rose 1.5 percent; foreclosure sales sank 35.4 percent; short sales dropped 31.3 percent
o Previously-owned sales were down 0.5 percent; new construction sales increased 20.9 percent

From The Skinny Blog.

More sellers may finally be jumping into the market at a time when buyers are facing the challenges of low inventory. Since 2013, new listing activity has been subdued relative to buyer activity and hasn’t surpassed 9,000 new listings per month since 2010. Excluding 2010, we haven’t had this many new listings for any month since May 2008. Increasing seller activity and tapering demand are consistent with a marketplace that’s starting to loosen up just a bit. That said, buyers shopping this spring and summer will still face stiff competition. Being successful in this market takes commitment, decisiveness and persistence—traits not necessarily typical of every buyer. In fact, May marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines in closed sales, likely reflecting the lack of homes for sale and not weakness in the economy. Strong demand combined with low supply means sellers yielded an average of 100.2 percent of their list price in May, a record high for any month and the first time this indicator has exceeded 100.0 percent. The shortage is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become increasingly common. Homes continue to sell quickly and for close to or above list price in this tight market, but nearly 12,000 buyers and sellers managed to transact real property last month.

May 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)

Sellers listed 9,164 properties on the market, a 2.9 percent increase
Buyers closed on 5,739 homes, a 11.3 percent decrease
Inventory levels for May fell 17.8 percent compared to 2017 to 10,403 units
Months Supply of Inventory was down 16.0 percent to 2.1 months
The Median Sales Price rose 8.4 percent to $271,000, a record high
Cumulative Days on Market declined 9.6 percent to 47 days, on average (median of 17)
Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

Single family sales sank 12.3 percent; condo sales fell 3.5 percent; townhome sales declined 7.5 percent
Traditional sales fell 9.7 percent; foreclosure sales sank 38.1 percent; short sales plummeted 59.7 percent
Previously-owned sales fell 12.4 percent; new construction sales rose 11.1 percent

From The Skinny Blog.

Have you ever wondered to yourself what the home price trendline would look like compared to a hypothetical trendline that starts at the same price in 1990 but increased at a steady and predictable 4% annual growth? Well you’re in luck, because that’s exactly the sort of in-depth market insights that we serve up on a regular basis.

As you can see, recorded average sales prices were well above their trend from 1997 through 2008. The gravity or weight behind the long-term average has an inescapable pull. Some call this return to the average a “reversion to the mean.” There will always be short-term market fluctuations, but the overall long-term direction and growth of the market is upward at around 4-5% per year (before inflation). When we use the 4% figure, prices are only slightly above trend. If we were to use the 5% figure, prices would appear drastically undervalued relative to their long-term average.

The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle.

*(Note that 2018 data is year-to-date up through April)
From The Skinny Blog.

Housing demand is strong and supply is low. That’s been the story for a few years. But there is some early evidence that things could be starting to loosen up. That said, buyers shopping this spring will still face stiff competition. The lack of inventory combined with rising prices is encouraging some sellers to stay put; however, the move up market offers a bit more inventory. This combined with historically low interest rates creates a perfect opportunity for homeowners looking to move up.

In April, sellers listed 7.2 percent fewer homes on the market—the sixth consecutive month of declines compared to a year ago. Largely due to the shortage, closed sales declined 5.2 percent compared to the prior year. For-sale housing inventory was 25.1 percent lower than April 2017. This shortage, which is particularly acute at the entry-level prices, has created a competitive environment where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become more common. Sellers are often receiving strong offers close to their original list price quickly, which can sometimes frustrate home buyers.

New construction closed sales rose 13.2 percent compared to last April. Although single family homes made up about 73.0 percent of all sales, townhomes and condos have seen stronger demand lately. Similarly, previously-owned homes made up about 90.0 percent of sales, but new construction showed a much stronger increase in pending and closed purchase activity. The average time on market is still 53 days, reminding sellers that they still need to stage and price their homes well.

April 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)
• Sellers listed 7,321 properties on the market, a 7.2 percent decrease
• Buyers closed on 4,635 homes, a 5.2 percent decrease
• Inventory levels for April fell 25.1 percent compared to 2017 to 8,958 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 25.0 percent to 1.8 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 8.6 percent to $266,000, a record high for April
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 10.2 percent to 53 days, on average (median of 18)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

Single family sales declined 6.4 percent; condo sales rose 3.0 percent; townhome sales rose 1.0 percent
Traditional sales fell 2.8 percent; foreclosure sales decreased 43.3 percent; short sales fell 20.0 percent
Previously-owned sales fell 5.6 percent; new construction sales rose 13.2 percent

From The Skinny Blog.