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More Early Signs of Shifting Market Tides

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By David Arbit on Wednesday, October 17th, 2018

After years of strong buyer activity and weak seller activity, the market tides seem to finally be shifting back toward balance. Strong demand and weak supply have created an environment that favors sellers. But if anything can be called a constant in the market—it’s change. Four of the last five months showed increases in new listings; while four of the last five months also had decreases in pending sales.

While the market hasn’t quite transformed, the dynamics are shifting and the market is transitioning. September saw the smallest decline in active listings since May 2015, and those long-awaited inventory gains could still happen this year. Months supply was down just 3.8 percent to 2.5 months. Today’s buyers still face plenty of competition over limited supply. However, a recent uptick in rates could further impact some budget-conscious buyers. Locking in at current levels would be advantageous in a rising rate environment.Sellers yielded an average of 98.4 percent of their original list price and 99.7 percent of their current list price, partly illustrating that the shortage still looms. The lack of supply is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and—for the most part—much better supplied. It’s noteworthy that inventory levels could double while sales remain stable and we’d still have less than 5 months of supply.

September 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)• Sellers listed 6,857 properties on the market, a 5.9 percent increase
• Buyers closed on 5,087 homes, a 5.8 percent decrease from last September
• Inventory levels for September fell 4.4 percent compared to 2017 to 12,570 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 3.8 percent to 2.5 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 6.1 percent to $262,000, a record high for September
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 16.0 percent to 42 days, on average (median of 24)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

• Single family sales fell 6.3 percent; condo sales declined 1.1 percent; townhome sales rose 0.4 percent
• Traditional sales fell 4.0 percent; foreclosure sales sank 41.1 percent; short sales dropped 25.0 percent
• Previously-owned sales were down 5.9 percent; new construction sales increased 11.5 percent

From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

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For Week Ending October 6, 2018

Residential real estate continues to churn out impressive numbers as we reach deeper into autumn. In many markets, new listings and/or pending sales are still outperforming the results from this same time last year. When the economy is strong, buyers and sellers will remain active beyond the more traditional selling season. Predictions for a slowdown are rolling in, but we’re not there yet. Let’s take a look at what’s happening locally.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 6:

  • New Listings increased 11.0% to 1,554
  • Pending Sales decreased 1.3% to 1,121
  • Inventory decreased 3.3% to 12,532

For the month of September:

  • Median Sales Price increased 6.1% to $262,000
  • Days on Market decreased 16.0% to 42
  • Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.3% to 98.4%
  • Months Supply of Inventory remained flat at 2.6

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

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For Week Ending September 29, 2018

The U.S. unemployment rate recently dropped to 3.7 percent, which is its lowest mark since December 1969. The economy continues to bear impressive fruit within and outside of residential real estate, and the Federal Reserve has reacted by raising the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the third rate hike of 2018. While this may be undesirable news for those carrying high credit debt, it is also a reflection of a bright economic outlook.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending September 29:

  • New Listings increased 15.0% to 1,592
  • Pending Sales decreased 6.3% to 1,123
  • Inventory decreased 4.7% to 12,653

For the month of August:

  • Median Sales Price increased 6.3% to $268,000
  • Days on Market decreased 16.7% to 40
  • Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.7% to 99.2%
  • Months Supply of Inventory remained flat at 2.6

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

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For Week Ending September 22, 2018

Seven years ago, FICO conducted a survey of bankers that concluded that home prices would not recover until 2020. While roughly one million people are still considered underwater in terms of home value, many people would consider the housing industry to not only be fully recovered but flying forward toward unprecedented price points. While high prices may soon begin to turn buyers off, it will be interesting to see if there is a measurable slowdown in real estate activity versus a natural shift to balanced prices.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending September 22:

  • New Listings increased 6.1% to 1,555
  • Pending Sales increased 3.0% to 1,156
  • Inventory decreased 5.3% to 12,632

For the month of August:

  • Median Sales Price increased 6.3% to $268,000
  • Days on Market decreased 16.7% to 40
  • Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.7% to 99.2%
  • Months Supply of Inventory decreased 3.8% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

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For Week Ending September 15, 2018

The kids are tucked into schools, harvest festivals and fall equinox parties are underway, and residential real estate markets are entering a new season with strong fundamentals and healthy levels of activity. While it is sensible to monitor reputable news sources that report on housing with respectable statistics to back claims, it is also important to stay grounded in the reality that we continue to enjoy a prosperous time in real estate.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending September 15:

  • New Listings increased 19.5% to 1,836
  • Pending Sales increased 4.8% to 1,195
  • Inventory decreased 6.3% to 12,475

For the month of August:

  • Median Sales Price increased 6.3% to $268,000
  • Days on Market decreased 16.7% to 40
  • Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.7% to 99.2%
  • Months Supply of Inventory decreased 3.8% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Gung-Ho Sellers Post Largest Increase in Nearly Three Years

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By David Arbit on Wednesday, September 19th, 2018

More sellers are feeling optimistic about listing their homes just as humidity, cabin weekends and food-on-a-stick give way to rakes, school buses and sweater vests. Compared to last August, Twin Cities sellers listed 7.6 percent more homes on the market. That was the largest increase since late-2015. Although buyers signed 2.9 percent fewer contracts than last year, they did manage to close on slightly more deals. Three of the last four months had increases in new listings; three of the last four months had decreases in pending sales. This trend of rising seller activity and moderating buyer activity suggests we could be approaching those long-awaited inventory gains. Sure enough, the 7.8 percent decline was the smallest decrease in inventory in over three years. Months supply was down just 3.8 percent to 2.5 months.

That said, today’s buyers still face plenty of competition over limited supply. Sellers yielded an average of 99.2 percent of their original list price and 100.1 percent of their current list price, illustrating how drastically undersupplied markets tend to favor sellers. The shortage is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and—for the most part—much better supplied. The market remains relatively tight, but there are some early signs that things could be loosening up for buyers.

August 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)
• Sellers listed 7,814 properties on the market, a 7.6 percent increase
• Buyers closed on 6,629 homes, a 0.2 percent increase from last August
• Inventory levels for August fell 7.8 percent compared to 2017 to 12,243 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 3.8 percent to 2.5 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 6.3 percent to $268,000, a record high for August
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 16.7 percent to 40 days, on average (median of 21)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

o Single family sales fell 0.8 percent; condo sales rose 15.3 percent; townhome sales increased 1.1 percent
o Traditional sales rose 1.5 percent; foreclosure sales sank 35.4 percent; short sales dropped 31.3 percent
o Previously-owned sales were down 0.5 percent; new construction sales increased 20.9 percent

From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

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For Week Ending September 8, 2018

Changing demographics, income levels, corporate growth and natural disasters all affect residential real estate markets. Home prices in Seattle and San Francisco have increased amidst e-commerce and technology success stories, while listings and sales decline precipitously when a hurricane strikes. This week, we are reminded of the destruction delivered by Hurricane Harvey to Houston at this time last year. From Katrina to Sandy to Maria to Florence, housing markets have bent but remain unbroken.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending September 8:

  • New Listings increased 3.8% to 1,755
  • Pending Sales decreased 2.3% to 1,048
  • Inventory decreased 7.2% to 12,213

For the month of August:

  • Median Sales Price increased 6.3% to $268,000
  • Days on Market decreased 16.7% to 40
  • Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.7% to 99.2%
  • Months Supply of Inventory decreased 3.8% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

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For Week Ending September 1, 2018

At this time of year, there tends to be a final push to get a housing deal done before a natural switch in focus toward the likes of back-to-school needs, home preparation for colder weather and even pre-planning for winter holiday and leisure travel. Although there doesn’t appear to be a huge national increase in sales compared to last year, there also isn’t any overt let-down. Residential real estate is healthy now and should continue to be healthy into the fall and winter seasons.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending September 1:

  • New Listings decreased 1.4% to 1,291
  • Pending Sales increased 0.4% to 1,217
  • Inventory decreased 7.6% to 12,438

For the month of July:

  • Median Sales Price increased 6.6% to $268,000
  • Days on Market decreased 17.4% to 38
  • Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.7% to 99.8%
  • Months Supply of Inventory decreased 7.4% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

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For Week Ending August 25, 2018

In both academic and conversational circles, more people are beginning to discuss 2018 as the end of the freewheeling days of residential real estate – with its high prices and fast sales, site unseen. Such a portrayal of the last several years of the housing market are sensationalistic at best, patently false at worst. It is true that median sales prices have risen and total days on market have lessened. This prevailing market trend has occurred gradually, and so shall the next trend.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending August 25:

  • New Listings increased 12.5% to 1,686
  • Pending Sales decreased 7.6% to 1,179
  • Inventory decreased 9.0% to 12,378

For the month of July:

  • Median Sales Price increased 6.6% to $268,000
  • Days on Market decreased 17.4% to 38
  • Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.7% to 99.8%
  • Months Supply of Inventory decreased 7.4% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.